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Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted bid to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to host the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his government managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, civil society is essential at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.