Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Votes in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Election materials in Myanmar
Myanmar's junta is holding a phased vote over the next month.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a sham, with major political parties banned, numerous figures imprisoned and as much as half of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which sparked massive protests and spiralled into a civil war.

Observers say the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the polls under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it difficult to forecast a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".

Phillip Wallace
Phillip Wallace

A seasoned sports analyst with over a decade of experience in betting markets and data-driven insights.