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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.