Everyday Murders in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent During Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Statistics

The average figure of everyday murders per month in the country has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by fresh administrative figures. However, security specialists have warned that homicide data could fail to signal better national safety.

Significant Decline in Daily Averages

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 murders a day in the month of November as opposed to roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was provided by the director of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we have seen over these months is extremely important,” the President remarked, noting that in November the smallest number of homicides were recorded for any November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Violent organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s highly military campaigns to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent years. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a murder rate over four times greater than the US. Since then, homicides have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the President said: “There is a strategy, we have tracking of the plan, and there is specific tracking town by town in some cases. The plan functions. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The key elements of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Increased collaboration between government authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Data Concerns

But, security researchers urged caution that focusing solely on murder statistics to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is especially true in light of the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive news if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

Per the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe the previous year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not valid for gauging the situation of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the will to accurately recognize and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was similarly problematic because it may hide days when there were particularly elevated levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily average makes surges of violence invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can point to the success of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for major offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

But notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by high bloodshed, with several states in the throes of cartel-related bloodshed. In the previous month there was a notable assassination of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

A short time later, many thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and throughout the country to voice their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The government frames [data] in a way to create a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” Vargas said.