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In October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he was the fifth consecutive UK leader to take up the role in six years.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its fifth prime minister in 24 months – three of them in the last ten months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his government’s survival.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is locked in a ongoing governmental crisis, the likes of which it has not witnessed for decades – possibly not since the start of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no easy escape.

Governing Without a Majority

Essential context: from the moment Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, France has had a divided assembly split into three opposing factions – the left, far right and his own centrist coalition – without any group holding a clear majority.

At the same time, the country faces twin financial emergencies: its national debt level and deficit are now nearly double the EU limit, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are approaching.

In this challenging environment, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In mid-September, the president appointed his close ally Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which proved to be largely unchanged from before – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

To such an extent that the following day, he stepped down. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “partisan attitudes” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

A further unexpected development: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for two more days in a last-ditch effort to salvage cross-party backing – a mission, to put it gently, not without complications.

Next, two ex-prime ministers openly criticized the embattled president. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, vowing to reject any and every new government unless there were early elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The president’s office announced the president would name a fresh premier two days later.

Macron honored his word – and on that Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Would he endure – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a critical address, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who oppose Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be frozen until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already supportive, the Socialists said they would not back censorship votes proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those votes, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, far from guaranteed to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS explicitly warned that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – some are still itching to topple it.

A look at the seat numbers shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR want him out.

To achieve that, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, similar to his forerunners, finished.

Most expect this to occur soon. Even if, by an unlikely turn, the divided parliament musters collective will to pass a budget by year-end, the outlook afterward look grim.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would lose seats, but there would remain no decisive majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to resign. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would dissolve parliament and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.

Surveys show the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that France’s voters, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that clear majorities are a bygone phenomenon, absolute victory is obsolete, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that cultural shift will not be feasible under the country’s current constitution. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and even disincentivizes – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”