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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the current competition is profoundly different. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners declining and recent strugglers ascending together. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still