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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."