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The Palestinian faction is likely to request important changes to Donald Trump's Gaza ceasefire proposal but may ultimately accept the framework within days as a basis for fresh talks, as per experts and insiders close to the organization.

Trump's Time Limit and Proposal Outline

Trump set a time limit of “three or four days” from Tuesday for Hamas to respond to his comprehensive proposal, which aims to conclude the 24-month war in the Gaza Strip and enable an seemingly open-ended global oversight of the devastated region, or face serious consequences.

Political analyst Mkhaimar Abusada remarked that the group now faces a decision between “two difficult options.” He added, “If they reject Trump's plan, as Trump has made clear, the outcome will be unfavorable and will allow Israel to do whatever it takes to finish this. They will say ‘yes, however we need this and that’.”

Hamas's Sticking Points

A senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations commented that it would be extremely challenging for Hamas to accept the conditions unconditionally. “This is reasonable. The text lacks details. But any response short of full and unconditional approval will be used against the group by Israel, the US government, and perhaps the Europeans,” he explained.

Israel's prime minister has accepted the US proposal, which incorporated several of Israel's principal demands and was drafted without input from the Palestinian faction.

Netanyahu, who is wanted for alleged war crimes by the international criminal court related to the military campaign in Gaza, has stated that Israel would “finish the job” if the group refused the proposal or slowed its execution. In March, Israel ended a two-month truce, declining to proceed with a scheduled second phase that could have definitively ended hostilities.

Internal Divisions and Outside Pressure

Hamas leaders are divided between Istanbul, Doha, and the Gaza Strip, which hinders discussions on the group's response. Turkey and Qatari authorities are putting pressure on Hamas to make concessions.

One sticking point is the plan's demand that the faction surrender weapons, a insider close to the organization said. The handover of arms would be very difficult for the militants to agree to, particularly without any political process or substantial progress toward a two-state solution.

“There are varying viewpoints inside the organization. Those in Doha tend to be more practical, particularly in contrast with the armed wing in the Strip. It is an obvious necessity to secure the support of the military wing, and the ordinary members,” the analyst explained.

War Background and Humanitarian Impact

The war were triggered by the Hamas raid into Israeli territory that resulted in the deaths of over a thousand individuals, primarily non-combatants. About two hundred fifty were taken hostage, of whom forty-eight remain in the territory, though less than 50% are still alive.

Over 66,000 individuals, mostly non-combatants, have been fatally injured by Israel's offensive in the region, large parts of the territory reduced to ruins, and the majority of the 2.3 million residents displaced repeatedly.

Trump's Plan Details

The US plan will require the fighters to free the remaining Israeli hostages within 72 hours of a ceasefire coming into effect, the phased pullback of IDF troops to a buffer zone along the border, and a surge of relief supplies. It also stipulates Israel to release more than 1,000 detainees, many imprisoned for life, which the group could portray as a significant win.

Another concern for Hamas is the unclear assurance of troop pullbacks, though the explicit mention that there will be no takeover or control of Gaza by Israeli forces was welcomed by an insider close to the group.

The Group's Current Condition and Strength

Some analysts argue that internal disagreements within the organization are frequently overstated.

“I don't think there is a real split between the Gaza leadership, the West Bank, and the external officials. They all agree on opposing the weapons surrender because the military resistance is such a deep principle in their nature and identity,” said an expert on Hamas.

Hamas has suffered major losses in the conflict. Thousands of fighters have been killed, along with nearly every senior military leaders. A report by ACLED indicated that at least forty commanders and important figures in the armed faction had been killed by Israeli airstrikes since spring. These losses have resulted in only a single senior commander from Hamas's pre-7 October command structure still in command, ACLED reported.

However the faction maintains insurgent activities and upholds elements of administration in the lack of any alternative. Aid workers in Gaza said that the faction still had a significant influence in the urban center, the “central camps” in the south, and the beach area of a coastal region.

Hamas, which was established in 1987, has enlisted thousands of new fighters who, though untrained and lacking gear, can inflict casualties on IDF troops.

Milshtein noted that, as per military sources, 90% of Hamas commanders had been eliminated, 97% of its missiles destroyed or launched, but only forty percent of the faction's extensive underground system had been destroyed. “Hamas have adjusted to the current situation. They remain operational in areas where the [Israeli military] has stated Hamas is totally defeated, but it is impossible to completely destroy Hamas. They have transformed and they have survived,” he concluded.

Internal Resistance to the Plan

Certain within the group are committed to opposing the Trump plan outright.

“There is a trend from the military wing, especially the younger fighters, which aims to continue the struggle,” Lovatt explained. “They believe is that Israel is facing challenges: the mobilization of part-time soldiers is a huge burden, national votes are scheduled within a year, there is growing global and local criticism … So, for them, it’s simply a question of who will endure longer.”