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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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